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Singapore’s housing market is moving in two directions. Private-home prices are rising even as fewer properties change hands, while HDB resale prices have fallen for a third straight quarter.

This week, we’re also looking at what weak market breadth could mean for US stocks, why higher rates complicate the REIT story, and four new ETFs coming to SGX.

Plus, what rising US Treasury yields could mean for your mortgage in Singapore.

TWO HOUSING MARKETS
Singapore’s private and public housing markets moved in opposite directions last quarter.

URA’s flash estimates show private-home prices rose 1.4% in Q3, their strongest quarterly increase since Q4 2024. But prices rose even as activity slowed: 99.co reports private-home transactions fell about 30% from Q2, while EdgeProp highlights particularly weak new-home sales.

The gains weren’t evenly spread either. URA estimates prices jumped 2.2% in the Outside Central Region and 2.8% for landed homes, but rose just 0.2% in the Rest of Central Region and slipped 0.1% in the Core Central Region.

Meanwhile, HDB’s flash estimate showed resale prices fell 0.2% in Q3, marking their third consecutive quarterly decline. CNA reports that resale transaction volumes nevertheless rose 2.7% from Q2.

Private prices rising on weaker activity; HDB prices falling despite more transactions. Singapore’s housing split is getting more interesting.

US Treasuries just suffered their worst quarter since 1994.

Reuters reports that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed during Q3 as investors grappled with inflation, interest rates and heavy government borrowing.
Sounds far removed from Singapore?

This week’s pick is CNA’s Money Talks podcast, “Will rising US Treasury yields push up your mortgage?” Host Andrea Heng speaks to Paras Gupta of UBP about how moves in the US bond market can filter through to mortgages, investments and prices in Singapore — and what investors should consider if borrowing costs stay elevated.

Listen to the 22-minute Money Talks episode here.

MARKET WARNING?
Fewer than 25% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. That sounds worrying.

But Phillip Securities Research studied the previous 10 such instances during bull markets. Six months later, the index was higher every time, averaging 10.6%.

Meanwhile, Saxo’s Q4 outlook argues investors should “raise the bar” as inflation risks return and bonds become more competitive with stocks.

Weak breadth hasn’t historically meant the rally is over. But history is no guarantee.

ETFs LAND ON SGX
Four Xtrackers UCITS ETFs tracking the S&P 500, S&P 500 Equal Weight, Nasdaq 100 and MSCI World will list on SGX on 13 October.

DollarsAndSense notes they can all be bought in Singapore dollars, with fees starting at just 0.03% a year.

But SGD-priced doesn’t mean SGD-hedged. Tim Talks Money points out that the ETFs are unhedged, so investors remain exposed to currency movements.

Their Irish domicile matters too. Financial Horse looks at the dividend-withholding and US estate-tax differences compared with holding US-listed ETFs directly.

More choice, lower costs — but the currency and tax details still matter.

Higher rates are putting Singapore REITs under pressure again.

Beansprout puts the average S-REIT yield at 5.6%, but rising bond yields can make that income less attractive — while refinancing could get more expensive.

The other side of the story is valuation. Stacked says S-REITs generally trade at around a 20% discount to book value, with more than 80% trading below their net asset value.

Cheap? Maybe. But with rates higher, the balance sheet matters as much as the yield.

CDL’S BIG RESET
CDL unveiled its three-year GET+ strategy on Sep 28. The market response was rough.

Under its GET+ strategy, the property group plans to deploy S$5 billion of growth capital and make at least S$6 billion of divestments from FY2027 to FY2029. Of the growth capital, 60% is targeted at Singapore, 30% at China and Japan, and 10% at other markets.

CDL also wants to bring net gearing down from 75% as at June 2026 to around 55% by FY2029.

Its shares had already fallen from S$10 in February to S$8.26 on Sep 25. After the strategy was announced, they fell further, closing at S$7.04 on Oct 2.

It’s a big reset. Now comes the execution.

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See you next week!